For Episode 31 (February 13, 2026), Sam built a portfolio macro scenario simulator. You give it a portfolio, pick a macro scenario, and AI estimates how each company would fare. It's a demo on sample data, built with our guest's company, Emblem, in mind. The demo itself lasts about two and a half minutes on the show, and Sam didn't say how long it took to build or which tools he used, so this page is short.
Our guest was August Kiles, head of product at Emblem, a platform that indexes fund data rooms and helps VC, growth equity and private equity firms with diligence, reports and financial models. Before the episode, Sam and August talked through possible future features for Emblem. A portfolio scenario tool was one of them, so Sam built a version to show.
Not covered on the show. Sam presented the finished tool and the "AI is doing its work" step, but didn't name the coding tool or the model behind the simulation. We won't guess.
What we can describe is how the tool works, as Sam walked through it at 02:20:
Maybe it's it's only a temporary potential macro scenario happening.
— Sam Nadler, Episode 31
Sam ran two scenarios live: regulatory pressure, and a tongue-in-cheek "liquidity supernova" where every company has a liquidity event. He was upfront that it is "obviously a demo tool," something Emblem might layer on later.
August's take at 05:15 was positive. He said a tool like this could be useful to a large portion of Emblem's potential customers. His bigger point was about speed: funds invest across so many sectors and stages that their workflows vary a lot, and because new features are now so easy to build, Emblem can ship them on demand. He described that as a flywheel for winning markets.
We didn't test the simulation's outputs against real outcomes, so there's no evidence yet on how accurate it is. To be useful beyond a demo, it would need a real portfolio and someone checking its calls over time.
For another of our forecasting-style demos, see the Monte Carlo pipeline forecast dashboard. More on the industry: AI in Finance.
In Sam's demo you load a portfolio (30 seed companies with their round and year), pick a macro scenario such as increased regulatory pressure, set speed of change, whether it is temporary or lasting, market sentiment and a 6, 12 or 24-month horizon, and the AI simulation sorts each company into unaffected, advantage zone, stress zone or watch list.
Sam's tool is a demo on sample companies, not a production system. Emblem's head of product, August Kiles, said something like it could be useful to a large portion of Emblem's potential customers.
The episode didn't say which tools or model Sam used. He showed the finished demo and moved on to the interview.
