Short answer: Jordan Metzner says his bot's live feed flags volume spikes, whale bets and coordinated entries, such as seven traders piling into the same yes bet, and gives each trade a confidence score, which he wants at 80 or above.
Watch this answer from Episode 26 (starts at 6:41) · Episode 26 notes and transcript
From Episode 26: We Built an AI Trading Bot for Prediction Markets — Here’s What Actually Happened, starting at 6:41.
Jordan Metzner [6:40]: Now I can see, spikes in volume. I can see spikes in whale behavior, essentially like high level bets, essentially high dollar amounts. I can see changes of behavior. I can see all this kind of stuff. And all that, what that does is it kind of gives me options of trades that are happening, right now. So here we can filter the trades out by a whale has made a position or coordinated or even just something that has like a lot of, activity here. This says coordinated entry because it says seven different traders piled in on a yes bet on that particular trade. And so what you can see here, there's all different types of trades of all different types of things. UNC Wilmington versus Northeastern, who's the winner here. Right? So what you can see is this is a whale trade. Somebody bet 236 contracts at 35¢ that UNC Wilmington will beat Northeastern. And honestly, I don't even know what sport that is. If it's college basketball, football, I have no idea. But in general, all these trades are available on Kalshi in real time.
Jordan Metzner [7:39]: And so what I did is I looked at, kind of trades like this, and, I would essentially bet based on its recommendation. So this says, bet $92 on yes. I think I was, like, doing it more fractionally, so I probably would have bet $9.20. But
Sam Nadler [7:51]: Is the strategy mainly to follow the trend? Like, you're either following a whale's bet or following a high volume signal. Is that, generally speaking, what your strategy is?
Jordan Metzner [8:04]: Yeah. I think, one thing I think that makes prediction markets so interesting is it feels like there's insider trading. It feels like there's people trading that have information or access to information that wasn't previously available. And so because of that, and because of your ability and visibility into seeing the market trades, You know, when you go to a Las Vegas sports book, you know the line, you might know a few other pieces of information, but do you really know how many people are betting? How many people just placed a bet in the last ten minutes, five minutes, twenty minutes? You really don't. And what these markets do is they offer some sort of transparency in that respect to allow you to see how the behaviors are happening on top of those trades. And so, yeah, I can look at whales basically like high dollar amount trades. I look at coordination. So essentially like when there's a high coordination like many people making the same trade.
Jordan Metzner [8:52]: So here you can see seven traders. Here you can see seven traders. Here you can see seven traders. So you know what it's seeing, hey, a lot of people are placing the same bet. Maybe there's some kind of behavior there. And then the last one is just like high, like in general. Like here you can see like when it's on high, essentially, you're seeing like big shakes and move ups between the different markets. Right? So, a bunch of people are moving into this, so that might be like an active thing as well. Okay. Cool. So that was my dashboard, but let me kinda jump into my trading view page here. So here you can see the trades are gonna come in. I have a confidence score on every trade. I even have a QR code that you can pop up and scan this QR code, and that will actually take you right to the trading page so you can make the trade on your phone. You can see there's 36 live events. We can filter by sports or politics or crypto, economy, entertainment, etcetera. We can sort by the reasons, the codes for why these different things are happening. You can also sort by different confidence scores, ultimate ROI, a bunch of different things. So, you can say, hey, I'm looking for, a confidence score of above 80 in sports.
Jordan Metzner [9:56]: And as you can see and not just whale signal, but let's put all signals. So you can see right now, the confidence score of the highest events are only 75. And to me, that's like not a good enough confidence score. In fact, I wanna say a confidence score of 80 or above or even 90 would be optimal. And so, yeah, you can basically use this to make your different trades. This is a multilevel trade. Here you can see these are kind of some more complicated trades as you can see. So these are like this is a 20¢ trade, but if you're correct, you win $10. Right? So the multiple here is really, really big versus kind of like a who wins, which game if we look at this like, Cremenisi, Calgary winner. Right? You see, like, you bet a dollar to get $9 on the yes here. So my guess is that if you bet on the no, it's probably has a 90% chance of winning. Alright. Great. Let's look at some of the trades I made here. So I deposited some money in my account. I made some trades. I canceled some trades. I focused on some sports here.
Jordan Metzner [10:50]: Here, you can see kind of like when I won and when I didn't. This UI is probably not optimal to see kind of when I won and lost, but, essentially here you can see I'm here's a Serie A game from Italy. Here's from France, and all different games all across. This is Newcastle versus Crystal Palace. And, if we click on the trade here, you can see in this trade, I bet yes, and I got zero earnings, which means I lost. Here I bet yes, and I did win. I won $9. So you can kinda see like which trades I won here. I won four dollars, here I won $0. Anyway, the UI is probably like a little bit suboptimal, but the long story short is that even though I won the majority of my trades, I guess like over 50%, 66%, I still lost money.
