Short answer: Jordan Metzner says Tesla will most likely sell FSD as a camera and hardware kit to other manufacturers, since it can't build enough vehicles alone. Anthony Monteiro says once it reaches Fords, Chevys and Toyotas, it's game over.
Watch this answer from Episode 25 (starts at 21:18) · Episode 25 notes and transcript
From Episode 25: Car Dealers Are Losing Inventory — AI Is the Only Fix, starting at 21:18.
Jordan Metzner [21:17]: Is Waymo, which is backed by Google, going to figure out using computer vision and, catch up to this type of Tesla technology? And, I think my last question or comment overall about all of this, and I think this is what I said to Sam last week with 14.2, is to me, it seems most obvious that Tesla will license the software to every other auto manufacturer. And selling Tesla FSD in a hardware software kit to manufacturers seems to me like the most probable path for multiple reasons, because it seems impossible Tesla will ever be able to produce the volume of the amount of vehicles needed in The United States. They'll never be able to have the vehicle diversity to meet that. And since customers like it so much, it just seems so obvious that Tesla could sell manufacturers an eight kit, camera kit plus a piece of hardware that puts in the trunk. And when you go to lease or buy a car, you can buy it with FSD or without FSD. And, you're just paying, to the dealer. You're paying Honda. You're paying Toyota. Toyota is paying Tesla.
Jordan Metzner [22:16]: And it just seems obvious that these, giant manufacturers are never gonna be able to stand up a laboratory that will compete against this. And so that also may, double down Tesla's ability to be excellent here. I'm sure Waymo would probably try the same type of behavior, but as you mentioned, this additional hardware is still limiting in the ability to kind of scale.
Anthony Monteiro [22:36]: Yeah. It's it's hardware that you can't well, you can, but the manufacturer, it's much harder to just put that in the assembly line and come out the pipe with a bunch of cameras in your mirrors and bumpers and places versus adding on these big, clunky, as you can see, the big rotary thing on the top that looks really crazy. But listen. I wish I could go raise that kind of money or maybe, like, an eighth of it or a sixteenth. I'd be really happy. But, god bless them, and Yeah. If it works. Everybody's got a dream and a model, and, Google's a big player, and they own the map, world. So, who knows? I just I truly feel watching Tesla and knowing Elon Musk that that space is probably gonna be dominated by a test like you said. It once it goes into Fords and Chevys and Toyotas and Hondas, then it's game over because I could build the fleet of taxis with any brand just with software at that point.
Sam Nadler [23:49]: Honda Civic, Prius, whatever.
Jordan Metzner [23:51]: Well, even more so, just like all the other vehicles that Tesla doesn't manufacture that are required. I mean, F-150 is the most popular vehicle in The United States, and, the Cybertruck competes with it in some sense, but not necessarily a replacement vehicle. Look at Sprinter vans. I mean, look at, the two door sedans. Even things like motorcycles can move to FSD. Right? And so we just have full auto driving on motorcycles. So, anyway, it sounds super exciting. Let's jump into the Tesla news.
